Bass Forecasting Tutorial - Entering Your Data

Entering Your Bass Forecasting Data

Because the Bass Forecasting model requires a specific data format, users with their own data should review the pre-formatted template to learn about the appropriate structure.

The Bass forecasting model can be run without any data blocks using only the settings found in the Run Analysis dialog box (number of periods to forecast, fixed market potential, and p & q values entered manually or based on analogous products).

Ideally, you will have some past data on your product adoption and the market potential to provide a more accurate forecast. 

The template will consist of the following data blocks depending on the template options selected.

Cumulated adoptions 

Data consists of the number of cumulated adoptions observed in the past. The leftmost column indicates the period index. 

The length of the period is not defined by the software but by the user. One period could represent one week, one month, one year, etc. depending on the data you have available. Remember to be consistent with your definition of the period (eg, if your previous cumulated adoptions data is in months, your forecasted data will be in months as well).

Market potential

Data consists of the maximum market potential for each period. The number of periods entered should be the total of the past data and periods to forecast (e.g. 10 periods of past data + 15 periods to forecast = 25 periods of market potential).

Relative price and advertising levels

Data consists of the relative price and advertising levels compared to launch at period 0. The number of periods entered should be the total of the past data and periods to forecast.